WXSIM Discussion

Regarding: 8:55 pm 3/16/08 WXSIM run

This forecast is being archived for another accuracy study. Results will be posted at the end of the study (about 7 days).

Storm Blog

4:03 PM: SVR issued for Crittenden & St. Francis Counties until 4:30 pm from the same storm as below.

3:40 PM: First SVR of the evening issued for Lee & Phillips Counties until 4 PM. Radar below:


ORIGINAL POST (3:19 PM): The Storm Prediction Center has just issued PDS Tornado Watch #37 for the entire operating area. This watch is in effect until 12:00 AM Wednesday. Stay tuned to local media outlets and us for the latest information.

Office Status Update

Because of PDS Tornado Watch #37, the office is now entering Storm Mode. All communication with our office should be limited to essential traffic only. We will also start the Storm Blog soon.

Office Status Update

Due to the slight risk of severe weather this afternoon, the office is going under the "Alert Status" until 6 PM. After 6 PM, the office will return to "Routine" status until 10 AM Tuesday or earlier if severe weather initiates in our coverage area.

Data Outage Notification

Due to a WD software upgrade, the live wx station feed will be down for a few moments after the makeup WXSIM model run. The NWR stream will remain unaffected. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Website Update

Because of a computer error, the regularly scheduled 6 PM CST WXSIM model run did not occur. It will occur in the 8 PM CST hour. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Storm Update

UPDATE #1: A Significant Weather Advisory has been issued by the NWS for this storm:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
450 PM CST MON NOV 5 2007

ARZ026-028-052315-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-
450 PM CST MON NOV 5 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 4
MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE CITY AT 450 PM CST...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF CARAWAY...LAKE CITY AND MONETTE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY..

$

ORIGINAL POST (4:34 PM): A strong storm with a history of marble-sized hail will move into Mississippi County by 5:00 pm. This storm has produced up to .73" hail, according to radar estimates. Additional dangers in this storm are the frequent lightning: at the time of this update, 17 strokes had occurred in the past two minutes. According to NWS storm tracks, this storm will move near Etowah by 5:05 pm. This storm could become severe if it strengthens more, so stay tuned to NWS products for further updates. (This is a separate storm from the last storm update.)

NWS Storm Motion: 289/31
Radar Storm Motion: 298/26
ET: 41.3
VIL: 33.1
VILD: 3.5
POSH: 28.9
MEHS: .59" at update time, max: .77"